A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate even with the basics. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Both authors two articles that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he said. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
